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And so, at long last, here we have it. The era of Conservative government which began in 2010 will end on Thursday July 4th. Sir Keir Starmer will succeed Rishi Sunak as prime minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. This is how the song ends: with a great sigh of relief.
That, you fancy, is the mood in Downing Street too. The prime minister and his advisors may talk as though an improbable revival is possible but, in their hearts, they know this is not going to happen. The ghosts of 1997 stalk the realm. Alea iacta est and all that.
In truth it was cast some time ago. Whatever faint hopes the Conservative and Unionist party had were extinguished by the Great Liz Truss Misadventure. That was the moment at which the opinion polls - which is to say, the people - shifted decisively, irrevocably, and mercilessly. Sunak has not always helped himself - indeed, he has rarely helped himself - but the kicking the Tories are about to receive has been years in the making.
So the prime minister ran out of options some time ago. Holding on in the Micawberish hope that something might turn up to salvage Tory bacon was impossible for two very good reasons. First, nothing was likely to turn up. And, second, the public have been thirsting for an election for some time. The longer it was delayed, the longer the government stalled a necessary turning of the page, the greater the misery likely to be inflicted upon Conservative candidates on polling day.
Since the inevitable cannot be avoided, there were few reasons for delaying it further. Come, friendly bombs, and fall on Conservative Central Office. Gotterdammerung can be strangely liberating, albeit in a way from which there is little prospect of return.
Much airtime and ink will be wasted in the coming weeks pondering the ways in which Starmer can become a kind of Devon Loch leader of the opposition. One must admit the possibility while also insisting upon its improbability. He may not excite but memories play tricks upon folk too: election reports from the months before the 1997 poll recognised that the Tories were likely stuffed but questioned whether there was any great swell of enthusiasm for Tony Blair. In the present moment, “Starmer: he’ll do” should be reckoned more than good enough.
For voters ceased listening to the government long ago. Rwanda? Not bothered. Inflation falling? It shouldn’t have gone up in the first place. The economy leaving (a small) recession? Small potatoes.
Because when it’s time it really is time. Fourteen years is long enough. Democratic hygiene, regardless of other considerations, requires a change of government subject to the proviso that the opposition are a vaguely credible ministry-in-waiting. That condition has been met.
Everyone knows this, which means this will be one of the stranger elections many of us have enjoyed. I strongly suspect that although the polls may close a little, relatively few voters are bothered by the detail or promise of what Labour will do once they are back in office. The people simply want to kick the nearest Tory.
And with good reason. The combination of Brexit, covid, and inflation has left the country in a state of palpable exhaustion. Enough is enough and, in the end, that is most of all that needs to be said. “The plan is working” Rishi Sunak is saying right now but even if he is right he is speaking to an empty room. Safety with the Conservatives or uncertainty with Labour is not a message which is going to resonate.
One chart, above all, explains and justifies the election result. This is it:
A change of government is the rational response to this. (Though, look, David Cameron’s coalition government looks better in retrospect, doesn’t it? A matter for another day, perhaps.)
“Do you feel better off than you did four years ago?” is a time-honoured question and the answer to that is obvious just now. It doesn’t matter that voters can’t tell you much about Labour’s plans. They know enough about the Tories’ own proposals to know they don’t like ‘em.
There will be time enough to conduct an autopsy on Sunak’s time in office in the weeks to come but, for now, it is hard to avoid the sense that he and his team have all but given up. Micawberism is not enough but nor, it turns out, is accepting reality. Damned if you cling on; damned if you don’t. That is how you know you are truly stuffed.
The fierce urgency of changing government was captured by Newsnight’s Nick Watt this afternoon:
The answer to that final question is simple: it is better to go when you are 20 points behind than when you are 25. But the first two tweets demonstrate the extent to which the Tory party itself has given up on being in power. At some level the party understands it deserves a punishment beating. Voters, though, have tired of this shower and correctly so.
There will be different elections held in different parts of the country. Scotland, unusually, will be an interesting - and productive - point of interest. Other places will have their attractions too. More on all of this in the weeks to come.
But most of all this is an election likely to be greeted with a simple verdict: About Bloody Time.
Summer in Santa Monica for the Sunaks, then?
Exactas always